Political Science Professor’s Study Reveals Prop. 50 Map Would Strengthen Latino Representation Across California
A new joint study from Cal Poly Pomona and Caltech finds that Proposition 50 would expand Latino political representation statewide. Co-authored by Political Science Assistant Professor Jarred Cuellar and Caltech colleague Raquel Centeno, the nonpartisan report analyzes how redistricting, demographic change and voter participation trends have shaped Latino political power in California and how the proposed map could influence upcoming elections.
Prop. 50, appearing on the Nov. 4 ballot, is a temporary redistricting measure designed to adjust California’s congressional boundaries ahead of the 2030 U.S. Census. The map would remain in effect only for the 2026 and 2028 election cycles, after which a new Citizens Redistricting Commission would draw updated districts.
Although redistricting has implications for all Californians, the Latino electorate merits focused analysis because of its size, regional distribution and internal diversity.
The report, “Latino Voters and the November 2025 Special Election: Redistricting and Representation,” assesses how the Prop. 50 map affects Latino voting power. It places the measure within the broader context of California’s growing Latino population — now nearly 40% of the state’s residents.
Since the 2010 creation of the independent California Citizens Redistricting Commission, Latino representation in Congress has improved, but many growing Latino communities — especially in the Inland Empire, Orange County and the Central Valley — remain underrepresented. Prop. 50’s proposed map would help close that gap by maintaining 16 Latino-majority districts and increasing Latino-influence districts from six to eight.
Latino-influence districts are defined as areas where Latino voters make up a significant share of the electorate but do not constitute an outright majority. These districts, which often rely on multiethnic coalitions, can be pivotal in shaping the balance of political representation statewide. By expanding these districts, the Prop. 50 map broadens Latino influence beyond traditional population centers and into rapidly diversifying suburban and inland regions.
“Rather than concentrating Latino voters in a few safe seats, Prop. 50 broadens their reach across more competitive districts,” said Cuellar. “It reflects California’s shifting demographics and ensures Latino communities remain a decisive voice in future elections.”
The report also highlights the larger significance of Prop. 50 in the ongoing evolution of Latino political power. It traces how redistricting over several decades has shaped Latino representation and how today’s population growth is driving Latino political influence into new regions.
In any election, Latino voter turnout remains a key challenge. Despite accounting for 40% of the state’s population, Latinos continue to vote at lower rates than other groups, limiting their political impact. The study suggests that Prop. 50’s broader district distribution could encourage greater engagement by giving Latino voters a more visible role in competitive elections.
The report concludes that Prop. 50 aligns with the goals of fair representation by extending Latino influence while maintaining compliance with the Voting Rights Act. The measure, Cuellar and Centeno note, would strengthen Latino voices in Congress without diminishing existing Latino-majority districts: an outcome that mirrors California’s ongoing demographic and political transformation.