Earthquake Myths and Facts
Myth: "Mega-Quakes" can happen
Fact: Strictly speaking, mega-quakes of magnitude 10 or more are possible; however, scientists agree that they are implausible. The magnitude of an earthquake is related to the length of the fault on which it occurs—the longer the fault, the larger the earthquake. The San Andreas Fault is only 800 miles long. To generate an earthquake of 10.5 magnitude would require the rupture of a fault that is many times the length of the San Andreas Fault. No fault long enough to generate a magnitude 10.5 earthquake is known to exist. The largest earthquake ever recorded was a magnitude 9.5 on May 22, 1960 in Chile on a fault that is almost 1,000 miles long.
Myth: Earthquakes only occur on the West Coast in the United States
Fact: Earthquakes can strike any location at any time. But history shows they occur in the same general patterns over time, principally in three large zones of the earth. The world's greatest earthquake zone, the circum- Pacific seismic belt, is found along the rim of the Pacific Ocean, where about 81 percent of the world's largest earthquakes occur. That belt extends from Chile, northward along the South American coast through Central America, Mexico, the West Coast of the United States, the southern part of Alaska, through the Aleutian Islands to Japan, the Philippine Islands, New Guinea, the island groups of the Southwest Pacific, and to New Zealand. The second important belt, the Alpide, extends from Java to Sumatra through the Himalayas, the Mediterranean, and out into the Atlantic. This belt accounts for about 17 percent of the world's largest earthquakes, including some of the most destructive. The third prominent belt follows the submerged mid-Atlantic ridge. The remaining shocks are scattered in various areas of the world. Earthquakes in these prominent seismic zones are taken for granted, but damaging shocks occur occasionally outside these areas. Examples in the United States are New Madrid, Missouri, and Charleston, South Carolina. Many decades to centuries, however, usually elapse between such destructive shocks.
Myth: The 1906 San Francisco earthquake was the deadliest ever
Fact: Though well known, the magnitude 7.8 San Francisco earthquake and ensuing fire killed 700-800 and razed large sections of the city. It was the most deadly in U.S. history, but that doesn’t make it the worst the world has seen, by far. The deadliest earthquake in recorded history struck Shensi province in China in 1556, killing about 830,000 people. The 1976 magnitude 7.8 earthquake which struck Tangshan, China killed somewhere between 250,000 and 800,000 people. In 2003, the magnitude 6.5 earthquake in Bam, Iran killed more than 40,000 people. The earthquake in Chile on May 22, 1960, is the strongest to be recorded in the world with magnitude 9.5, and killed more than 4,000. For the record, the largest U.S. earthquake occurred on March 28, 1964, in Alaska. It was a magnitude 9.2 quake and took 131 lives.
Myth: California has the most earthquakes in the country
Fact: Alaska registers the most earthquakes in a given year, with California placing second. California, however, has the highest risk and most damaging earthquakes because of its greater population and extensive infrastructure. Florida and North Dakota have the fewest earthquakes each year.
Myth: The ground can open up during an earthquake
Fact: A popular cinematic device is a fault that opens during an earthquake to swallow up an inconvenient character, but gaping faults exist only in movies and novels. The ground moves across a fault during an earthquake, not away from it. If the fault could open, there would be no friction. Without friction, there would be no earthquake. Shallow crevasses can form during earthquake induced landslides or other types of ground failures. Faults, however, do not gape open during an earthquake.
Myth: California will eventually fall into the ocean
Fact: The ocean is not a great hole into which California can fall, but it is itself land at a somewhat lower elevation with water above it. It’s absolutely impossible that California will be swept out to sea. Instead, southwestern California is moving horizontally northward towards Alaska as it slides past central and eastern California. The dividing point is the San Andreas fault system, which extends from the Salton Sea in the south to Cape Mendocino in the north. This 800 mile long fault is the boundary between the Pacific Plate and North American Plate. The Pacific Plate is moving to the northwest with respect to the North American Plate at approximately 46 millimeters (2 inches) per year (the rate your fingernails grow). At this rate, Los Angeles and San Francisco will one day (about 15 million years from now) be next-door neighbors, and in an additional 70 million years, Los Angeles residents will find themselves with an Alaska zip code!
Myth: People can stop earthquakes
Fact: We cannot prevent earthquakes from happening (or stop them once they’ve started). However, we can significantly mitigate their effects by characterizing the hazard (e.g., identifying earthquake faults, unconsolidated sediment likely to amplify earthquake waves, and unstable land prone to sliding or liquefying during strong shaking), building safer structures, and preparing in advance by taking preventative measures and knowing how to respond.
Myth: Lots of small earthquaes can prevent large earthquakes
Fact: Seismologists have observed that for every magnitude 6 earthquake there are about 10 of magnitude 5, 100 of magnitude 4, 1,000 of magnitude 3, and so forth as the events get smaller and smaller. This sounds like a lot of small earthquakes, but there are never enough small ones to eliminate the occasional large event. It would take 32 magnitude 5's, 1000 magnitude 4's, and 32,000 magnitude 3's to equal the energy of one magnitude 6 event. So, even though we always record many more small events than large ones, there are far too few to eliminate the need for the occasional large earthquake.
Myth: We can predict earthquakes
Fact: Earthquake prediction is the holy grail for earthquake scientists, but there currently is no accepted method to accomplish the goal of predicting the time, place and magnitude of an impending quake. Research into earthquake prediction continues. However, the USGS approach has been to focus on providing long-range forecasts of the likelihood locations and impacts of damaging earthquakes. For example, scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major earthquake occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 62% and 60% in Southern California. Scientists are also able to predict the type of ground motion to expect based on the geology and the history of earthquake activity of the region. Engineers and building code developers use these models of site response to improve the safety of structures, thereby reducing the ultimate earthquake risk.
Myth: Animals can predict earthquakes
Fact: Changes in animal behavior cannot be used to predict earthquakes. Even though there have been documented cases of unusual animal behavior prior to earthquakes, a reproducible connection between a specific behavior and the occurrence of an earthquake has not been made. Because of their finely tuned senses, animals can often feel the earthquake at its earliest stages before the humans around it can. This feeds the myth that the animal knew the earthquake was coming. But animals also change their behavior for many reasons, and given that an earthquake can shake millions of people, it is likely that a few of their pets will, by chance, be acting strangely before an earthquake.
Myth: It's been raining a lot, or very hot -- it must be earthquake weather!
Fact: Many people believe that earthquakes are more common in certain kinds of weather. In fact, no correlation with weather has been found. Earthquakes begin many kilometers (miles) below the region affected by surface weather. People tend to notice earthquakes that fit the pattern and forget the ones that don't. Also, every region of the world has a story about earthquake weather, but the type of weather is whatever they had for their most memorable earthquake. It is also a myth that big earthquakes always happen at a particular time of day.
Myth: Good building codes mean safe buildings
Fact: Architects and engineers are using knowledge learned from past earthquakes to make roads, bridges, and buildings safer in the event of major earthquakes. Local officials are also enacting new building codes to ensure new buildings are built with earthquake safety in mind. This includes both improving the design of new buildings and bridges as well as strengthening older units to incorporate the latest advances in seismic and structural engineering. But the best building codes in the world do nothing for buildings built before that code was enacted. While the codes have been updated, the older buildings are still in place. Fixing problems in older buildings—also known as retrofitting—is the responsibility of the building's owner.
Myth: Earthquakes kill people
Fact: In an earthquake, the severity of the shaking can cause manmade and natural structures and the contents within these to fail or fall and injure or kill people. There have been large earthquakes with very little damage because they caused little shaking and/or buildings were built to withstand that shaking. In other cases, smaller earthquakes have caused great shaking and/or buildings collapsed that were never designed or built to survive shaking. Much depends on 2 variables: geology and engineering. From place to place, there are great differences in the geology at and below the ground surface. Different kinds of geology will do different things in earthquakes. For example, shaking at a site with soft sediments can last 3 times as long as shaking at a stable bedrock site such as one composed of granite. Local soil conditions also play a role, as certain soils greatly amplify the shaking in an earthquake. A soft, loose soil will shake more intensely than hard rock at the same distance from the same earthquake. Fires are another major risk during earthquakes as gas lines may be damaged and particularly hazardous.
Myth: During an earthquake you should head for the doorway
Fact: That’s outdated advice. In past earthquakes in unreinforced masonry structures and adobe homes, the door frame may have been the only thing left standing in the aftermath of an earthquake. Hence, it was thought that safety could be found by standing in doorways. In modern homes doorways are no stronger than any other parts of the house and usually have doors that will swing and can injure you. YOU ARE SAFER PRACTICING THE “DROP, COVER, AND HOLD” maneuver under a sturdy piece of furniture like a strong desk or table. If indoors, stay there. Drop to the floor, make yourself small and get under a desk or table or stand in a corner. If outdoors, get into an open area away from trees, buildings, walls and power lines. If in a high-rise building, stay away from windows and outside walls, stay out of elevators, and get under a table. If driving, pull over to the side of the road and stop. Avoid overpasses and power lines. Stay inside your car until the shaking is over. If in a crowded public place, do not rush for the doors. Crouch and cover your head and neck with your hands and arms. You should practice the “DROP, COVER AND HOLD” method at work and at home at least twice a year.
Myth: Everyone will panic during the Big One.
Fact: A common belief is that people always panic and run around madly during and after earthquakes, creating more danger for themselves and others. Actually, research shows that people usually take protective actions and help others both during and after the shaking. Most people don't get too shaken up about being shaken up!
Source: U. S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Facts and Earthquake Fantasy, http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/topics/megaqk_facts_fantasy.php